Friday, October 12, 2007

Like an unlucky girl two weeks after prom, I'm late

I pick Colorado over Arizona in six games, although I suspect Colorado could do it in five. Look at the following season stats (Colorado vs. Arizona):

104 vs 88 OPS+, .263 vs .249 EqA, 860 vs 712 Runs Scored, .354 vs .321 OBP, 110 vs 114 ERA+, 1.36 vs 1.38 WHIP

The Rockies have a much better offense and a surprisingly comparable pitching arsenal. I would have never expected either team to make it this far, but while Colorado gained some great young pitchers during the season, the Diamondbacks have kind of been outperforming themselves. They just don't score.

Boston and Cleveland are much closer. Although Boston seems like an offensive juggernaut, the two teams have had very comparable seasons (Boston vs Cleveland):

110 vs 105 OPS+, .270 vs .261 EqA, 867 vs 811 Runs Scored, .362 vs. .343 OBP, 118 vs 109 ERA+, 1.27 vs 1.32 WHIP

The Red Sox get a slight advantage in both hitting and pitching, but the Indians have really had a fantastic run and put out a pretty good team. I think that Boston can outplay them, though. Carmona is the best thing going for Cleveland, so maybe they get two wins if they get him to pitch twice. The same way the Sox took advantage of Sabathia's sloppiness tonight the way the Yankees didn't last week, I think the Sox will take advantage of Byrd's sloppiness, too. Westbrook doesn't match up with either Schilling or Matsuzaka. You give the edge to Boston in six games, although the Indians might be able to squeeze an extra one out and force it to seven.

And no, the outcomes of the first two games didn't influence me beyond my commentary here. I already revealed both picks to some people a few days ago, so really I've just been neglecting you, the honest men and women who make our society rich and vibrant.

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