Sunday, October 14, 2007

My thoughts about the Yanks

Postseason numbers invariably match regular season numbers over time. Over 25 postseason series (125 games, 495 AB), Derek Jeter has a .309 batting average and a .377 on-base percentage (hits + walks). For his career regular season numbers, he has a .317 batting average and a .388 on-base percentage. Over 10 postseason series (39 games, 147 AB), Alex Rodriguez has a .279 BA and a .361 OBP. For his career in the regular season, he has a .306 BA and a .389 OBP. If both players had four extra hits in the postseason, their playoff batting averages would be identical to their regular season batting averages (.317 and .306, respectively).

Joe Torre will not be fired. The Yankees should have let him go after 2003, and they had legitimate chances to drop him after '04, '05, and '06. I doubt they'll do it now. More than likely, he'll get a one year deal at about $4 million.

George Steinbrenner is going to die. We're all going to die, but I think the Boss is on his way out soon. I was thinking he would probably die right around when the new Stadium opened, but now I'm not so sure he will make it that far. I feel he is deteriorating rapidly, and that the whole Joe Torre statement was either a small moment of lucidity or just a ploy by the organization/family to make it seem like George Steinbrenner is still what he once was. He isn't, and I think he's going to end up like Phil Rizzuto, shut away and dying out of the public eye.

The Yankees rotation needs to be young. There are no free agent pitchers that look very exciting this offseason, and those that are somewhat interesting all have options. The Yanks always bring in big name free agents, and they don't really live up to the hype. Many teams perform much better when they stick their young arms on the team, New York included. Next year, I say the rotation should be Andy Pettitte (the one veteran), Chien-Ming Wang, Ian Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain and Phillip Hughes. The potential there is far greater than anything the Yankees could go out and buy. The Yanks best shot to win a Series is to have that rotation work well, and if it doesn't, then they're no worse than if they went out and got a bunch of league average free agents. Naturally you do everything you can to sign Johan Santana next year, but you worry about that later.

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