Saturday, January 5, 2008

Blu-Ray wins (for now)

Over at our message board, there is a thread discussing that Blu-Ray has defeated HD-DVD. The techphiles are happy, but a fair number of us don't think there is going to be a large surge for Blu-Ray, until DVD starts getting phased out.

Here's what I had to say:
I'm disappointed Blu-Ray won because of the Sony component of it. It's not an anti-Playstation bias so much as the fact that every Sony electronic device I've owned has lasted shorter than other brands. In other words, Sony is consistently the worst product I buy; I've had better success with Korean shit.

As for the quality, I can tell the difference between VHS and DVD, and so I imagine I will be able to tell the difference between DVD and Blu-Ray. However, one advantage DVD has over VHS is the longer lasting format (VHS deteriorates each time you use it), the larger storage capacity, ease of use and access, and the bonus features. Blu-Ray might be BETTER, but it's not offering anything different, just better. Yeah, the bonus features might be more interactive, but interactivity isn't necessarily new.

VHS to DVD was a horizontal change, whereas DVD to Blu-Ray is a vertical change. An example would be the difference between the N64 to Gamecube (vertical) versus Gamecube to Wii (horizontal). DVD provided the kind of market disruption that made the Wii so successful. It was doing something totally new and different. Blu-Ray is just like the difference between PS3 and PS2. Nicer looking, better, slicker, prettier, etc., etc., but not, at heart, a fundamental change.
I'm not sure if I am 100% accurate, but based on my understanding of such matters, I think I'm pretty close.

Looking at the success of mp3s with music, I imagine (as do others) that digital distribution will be the most popular choice by, say, 2012. You already have On Demand by companies like Comcast, online movies provided by Netflix, and streaming episodes provided by television networks. Youtube is popular, as is Google Video.

I like to have DVDs on my bookshelf the same way I like to have CDs in my spinner rack, but really, I can see a ton of people preferring to have a little box (essentially a harddrive) with all of their movies and TV shows stored on it, in much the same way people use iPods. Truth be told, I have a lot of digital music these days, and it's not unusual for me to watch TV shows online rather than watching them on TV (this is especially true of BBC "programmes"). I love my DVR, too.

Blu-Ray is the immediate future, but I think the long term future is digital distribution. That's why the Writer's strike is so critical. The industry says there is no money in online content, but they're wrong; very soon, it's going to be a gold mine, a diamond mine, and a vagina mine, all rolled into one.

Finally, I am so happy I get to use my "disruption" tag again.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Yo Roberto Ibale will deliver your HD-DVD Porn in his mailman dad’s 1998 corolla. It has no rims but my wife ava loves it so much we had ass sex in the back seat last nite with pancit coming out of her bunghole. I got crazy mad and licked it up then spanked her with the chinellas! Can you also tell my son Junior to move out of the house because he’s 32 and still filming car shows for a living making no money.